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Ruto overtakes Kalonzo in Poll

Posted by Administrator on January 20, 2012

Kalonzo and Ruto |File Photo

Kalonzo and Ruto |File Photo

Eldoret North MP William Ruto has overtaken Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka in the latest opinion poll released by Synonate yesterday. Kalonzo has dropped one percentage point to stand at 9 per cent while Ruto has maintained his 10 percent rating which has seen him become third.

Ruto has been in the news in the last few weeks following his squabbles in UDM and his subsequent decision to launch a new party URP last week. He has insisted that he will run for the presidency regardless of the decision by the International Criminal Court expected anytime between now and Monday.

The ICC is due to decide whether six Kenyans, Ruto, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, the Head of Public Service Francis Muthaura, Former Police Commissioner Hussein Ali, former Cabinet Minister Henry Kosgey and Radio presenter Joshua Arap Sang can proceed to full trial. They six are facing charges of committing crimes against humanity in connection with the 2007 post election violence.

The Synovate poll further suggests that if general elections had been held last month, Prime Minister Raila Odinga would have received most of the votes even though he would not have emerged a clear winner thereby necessitating a run off between him and deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta.

Raila’s popularity rating has dropped by two percentage points to stand at 32 per cent which is down from 34 per cent in the last quarter. Uhuru’s popularity has also dropped by 2 percentage points to stand at 22 down from 24 percentage points in the last quarter. Narc-Kenya party leader Martha Karua with 4 percent comes in fifth after Ruto and Kalonzo respectively while Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa is sixth with 2 percent.

Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth and former Foreign minister Raphael Tuju whose entry in the presidential race became more definite late last year tie in seventh place with one per cent each. The poll, conducted last month indicates that there is still a good number of Kenyans—17 percent — who are undecided about who they will vote for.

A total nationwide sample size of 2,000 comprising both males and females aged 18 and above was used during the face to face household methodology. A sample of 2,000 is adequate to for making estimates at a national and provincial level. “The sample of drawn by Ipsos-Synovate sample was distributed across the various provinces proportionate to population size (PPS) using census data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS),” said a statement issued by Synovate to explain the poll’s methodology.  “The margin of error for this study lies within +/- 2.2 percent so it is safe to say that there has not been any significant change in the support levels of these candidates,”said Synovate’s managing director Maggy Ireri.

A combined team of Uhuru-Ruto was bound to attract more following from voters in the Rift Valley, Eastern and Central provinces which are also the regions with the most number of people who do not approve of the ICC process. “If Uhuru and Ruto unite to run for the presidency or if they don’t run and back one presidential candidate it is likely that people from their provinces will go along with their combination,” Ireri explained.

The poll indicates that Kenyans are still divided in their support for the ICC process. The Synovate research indicates that 54 percent of Kenyans support the process— a drop of five percent— from 59 percent that supported the process in two months ago. Another 35 percent of those polled said they were opposed to the handling of the election violence cases by the ICC while 11 percent of Kenyans did not have an opinion on the matter.

The study was conducted by Ipsos-Synovate between 12 and 19 December 2011 also shows a steady decline in the public support of the ICC process from 2010. In October 2010 before the list of Ocampo Six was unveiled, support for the ICC process stood at 68 percent and this had declined to 57 percent in December 2010.

In March 2010, support for the ICC process stood at 61 percent. This is the period when the summons to be appear in the Hague were first issued. Between July and October 2011, support for the ICC process varied between 56 percent and 59 percent. Central (46 percent), Rift Valley (40 percent), Eastern (48 percent) and North eastern (49 percent) indicate the least support for the ICC process while Nyanza scores the highest at 76 percent.

While releasing the survey yesterday, Ireri attributed the declining support for the ICC process in the four provinces to the fact that four of the six suspects come from the area. Uhuru is from central, William Ruto, Joshua sang and Henry Kosgey are from Rift valley, Francis Muthaura is from Eastern while Hussein Ali although born in Eldoret, has roots in North Eastern province.

The poll also found out that voters were ignorant of electoral laws, processes and the seats they will be required to vote for. For instance, 72 percent of Kenyans are aware that they will only vote for MPs, other than voting for the President. They seemed unaware that the constitution has provided for positions of governors, senators, women’s representative, county assembly representatives as well as councillors.

Further, only 14 percent of Kenyans are aware of the new electoral positions of women’s representative. The men polled were nearly twice as likely to be aware of the new electoral positions than the women. Coast people indicated the least intention to vote with only 78 per cent of those polled saying they will participate in the forthcoming general elections. The rest of the country indicated that more than 80 per cent of the people would participate in the polls with response from Central province indicating the highest at 89 per cent.

Source: http://www.the-star.co.ke/national/national/58880-ruto-overtakes-kalonzo-in-poll


One Response to “Ruto overtakes Kalonzo in Poll”

  1. leo said

    I have got strong feelings that the ICC will go ahead and confirm the charges filed against the Ocampo six. They have to be confirmed otherwise Moreno and the entire ICC will have alot of trouble explaining to Kenyans and the world how 1300 lifes were lost and not to mention thousands of IDP still in nasty camps. Kenyans gave them the six suspects so that the dead and all the IDP may get justice and therefore we expect just that and nothing less.It would be a slap in the face to the IDP and the dead if the charges against the six are dropped. I can bet to anyone the charges will be confirmed.

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